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Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug.
A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society.
We explore:
The experimental mindset that led Joey from horse-racing predictions to mining bitcoin in high school
Why Augur was the right idea at the wrong moment, and what it taught Joey about timing and infrastructure
The product, liquidity, and founder-market fit signals that persuaded Founders Fund to back Polymarket
Why resolution is the hardest problem in prediction markets, and how Polymarket approaches it
How crypto treasury companies are emerging as a major force and where ETFs fit in
Why mimetic behavior drives entire sectors and how savvy investors read those waves
The rise and fall of Operation Choke Point and its impact on crypto
How Founders Fund reframed Joey’s approach to evaluating founders, markets, and structural shifts
Explore the episode
Timestamps
(00:00) Intro
(04:10) How Joey began making predictions with horse racing
(08:00) Why Joey began coding with Applesoft BASIC
(09:32) How Joey first discovered crypto
(11:06) Why Joey dropped out of school to pursue crypto
(12:52) The origins of Joey’s interest in medical school
(16:15) How Joey spends nights and weekends splitting time between biotech and trading
(17:18) The early influences behind Augur’s creation
(19:40) Why prediction markets captivated early crypto thinkers
(23:26) The unlock crypto created for prediction markets
(29:22) How Polymarket began and why Joey decided to back it
(32:11) What made Polymarket the right team
(35:25) The FBI raid and how Shane responded
(38:20) Why Joey expected Polymarket’s volume to hold after the election
(40:20) The trend toward duopolies in financial markets
(42:37) What sets Polymarket’s product design apart
(45:25) How to keep prediction markets clear and unambiguous
(48:31) The rise of crypto treasury companies and FF’s work with BitMine
(51:26) The value of crypto treasuries and the role of ETFs
(54:33) The mimetic rise of crypto treasury companies
(57:03) Joey’s take on where the crypto market stands now
(1:00:23) Why Founders Fund is bullish on ETH
(1:03:03) Operation Choke Point, regulatory whiplash, and the end of the crypto crackdown
(1:06:04) Where the Clarity Act falls short
(1:08:56) How Joey’s thinking has evolved since joining Founders Fund
(1:13:21) Final meditations
Follow Joey Krug
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joeykrug
Resources and episode mentions
Books
Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future: https://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804139296
The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future: https://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/B094PSKDZV
More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite: https://www.amazon.com/More-Money-Than-God-audiobook/dp/B004AUQPF0
The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market: https://www.amazon.com/Alchemy-Finance-Reading-Mind-Market/dp/0471043133
People
Dan Romero’s website: https://www.generalist.com/p/dan-romero
Sean Parker on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/parkersean
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy
Micree Zhan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/micree-zhan-305a1817a
Tom Lee on X: https://x.com/fundstrat
Michael Saylor’s website: https://www.michael.com
Peter Thiel on X: https://x.com/peterthiel
Other resources
No Rivals: The Prophet (Part I): https://www.generalist.com/p/founders-fund-1
No Rivals: The Disciples (Part II): https://www.generalist.com/p/founders-fund-2
Founders Fund: https://foundersfund.com/
The Kentucky Derby: https://www.kentuckyderby.com
Applesoft Basic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Applesoft_BASIC
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System: https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/training/annual-national-training-seminar/2018/Emerging_Tech_Bitcoin_Crypto.pdf
Ethereum Whitepaper: https://ethereum.org/whitepaper
Atypical Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome: https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/atypical-hemolytic-uremic-syndrome
Soliris: https://www.drugs.com/soliris.html
Alexion: https://alexion.com
Augur: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augur_(software)#References
The Future of Farcaster with Dan Romero: https://www.generalist.com/p/dan-romero
Polymarket: https://polymarket.com
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com
Alchemy: https://www.alchemy.com
Pantera Capital: https://panteracapital.com
CME Group: https://www.cmegroup.com
CBOE: https://www.cboe.com
BitMine: https://www.bitminetech.io
Workrise: https://www.rigup.com
Clarity Act of 2025: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633
Joining Founders Fund: https://medium.com/@joeykrug/joining-founders-fund-4c3544633081
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