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What really determines success in the age of AI? Is it better models or broader reach? Chris Miller, author of the bestselling book Chip War, explains how semiconductors have become the strategic center of gravity for global power, economics, and innovation. As a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, Chris has spent nearly a decade studying how chips are reshaping geopolitics and why they're essential to understanding everything from military capabilities to artificial intelligence.
In our conversation, we explore:
Why diffusion and adoption of technology are more important markers of impact than actual capabilities
What most people got wrong about DeepSeek's breakthrough, but why China's AI talent still matters
Huawei's surprising transformation from telecom giant to potential AI powerhouse
The critical role India and Southeast Asia may play in chip manufacturing
How the Trump administration's policies will impact the technological battle
Why China will likely achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency in mainstream chips within five years
Barriers to rebuilding a domestic chip industry in the US
The massive infrastructure investments being made in AI computing power
The implications of Stargate
And much more!
Explore the episode
Timestamps
(00:00) Intro
(04:06) A brief overview of Chip War
(06:10) Why Chris believes we are on the cusp of a new technological era
(08:03) Why the diffusion of technology is the true marker of impact
(09:29) Chris’s thoughts on enterprise adoption of AI
(11:03) Chris's personal use of AI tools
(12:24) The significance of DeepSeek and China's AI capabilities
(17:05) The main players in the Chinese AI space
(18:34) A case for Huawei as a full-stack player
(20:33) LLM price trends, and why DeepSeek isn't assured to win emerging markets
(22:19) Key drivers of software success, and how that might translate to AI
(24:42) US AI market: Chris's insights on who will gain dominance
(27:38) The concept of sovereign AI models and their viability
(32:33) Trump vs. Biden on AI policy
(34:52) Progress in diversifying semiconductor manufacturing
(37:04) The challenges facing Intel and its future
(38:55) What to watch for in the semiconductor race, and China’s move towards self-sufficiency
(45:09) The advanced packaging trend
(46:34) Solving for increased energy needs
(50:05) The implications of the Stargate project, and what we still don’t know
(52:44) The motivation behind Silicon Valley empire builders
(56:10) AI's unique appeal to tech leaders' ambitions
(58:03) Final meditations
Follow Chris Miller
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-miller-93004923/
Twitter: https://x.com/crmiller1
Website: https://www.christophermiller.net/
Resources and episode mentions
Books
Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology: https://www.amazon.com/Chip-War-Worlds-Critical-Technology/dp/1982172002
Isaac Newton: https://www.amazon.com/Isaac-Newton-James-Gleick/dp/1400032954
A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains: https://www.amazon.com/Brief-History-Intelligence-Humans-Breakthroughs/dp/0063286343/
People
Tyler Cowen on X: https://x.com/tylercowen
Sam Altman on X: https://x.com/sama
President of Russia on X: https://x.com/kremlinrussia_e
Elon Musk on X: https://x.com/elonmusk
Jensen Huang on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jenhsunhuang/
Mark Zuckerberg on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/zuck/
Isaac Newton: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton
Galileo Galilei: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei
Sergei Lavrov: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Lavrov
Peter the Great: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_the_Great
Catherine the Great: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_the_Great
Other resources
ChatGPT: https://chatgpt.com/
Claude: https://claude.ai
DeepSeek: https://www.deepseek.com/
NVIDIA: https://www.nvidia.com
The Stargate Project: Trump Touts $500 Billion Bid For AI Dominance: https://www.forbes.com/sites/moorinsights/2025/01/30/the-stargate-project-trump-touts-500-billion-bid-for-ai-dominance/
SMIC: https://www.smics.com/
CXMT: https://www.cxmt.com/
Alibaba: https://www.alibaba.com/
Tencent: https://www.tencent.com/
Baidu: https://usa.baidu.com/
Bytedance: https://www.bytedance.com/
Huawei: https://www.huawei.com/en/
Marginal Revolution: https://marginalrevolution.com/
Grok 3: https://x.ai/grok
Sarvam: https://www.sarvam.ai/
Sakana: https://sakana.ai/
Mistral: https://mistral.ai/
Intel: https://www.intel.com/
Samsung: https://www.samsung.com/
Broadcom: https://www.broadcom.com/
Qualcomm: https://www.qualcomm.com/
Apple: https://www.apple.com/
ASML: https://www.asml.com/en
EUV tools: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography
Commonwealth Fusion Systems: https://cfs.energy/
SoftBank: https://www.softbank.jp/en/
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